Table of Contents	Fall River Open Space Plan C. Population Characteristics/Demographics i.) Population Growth,Projections & Density Population Growth Fall River's population decreased by -7.24% between 1960 and 1990. By 1990, the city's population had decreased by 7,239 persons. This decline occurred in a period of vigorous (30%) population growth in Bristol County and a moderate statewide population increase of nearly 17%. Source:1990 U.S.Census Table 1: Population Comparisons between 1960 and 1990 Year Fall River Bristol Co. State 1960 99,942 398,488 5,148,578 1970 96,898 444,301 5,689,170 1980 92,574 474,641 5,737,037 1990 92,703 506,325 6,016,425 %Change (1960-1990) -7.24% 30.00% 16.86% Population Projections The Massachusetts Institute for Social and Economic Development Research (MISER), located at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, is an organization that collects and analyzes demographic information for the State and has done a series of population projections for all Massachusetts cities and towns. The projections are based on fourteen different county models, with birth, survival and migration components figured into each model. The Southeastern Regional Planning and Economic Development District (SRPEDD) utilizes town building permit data from 1980 to 1987. This projection is significantly lower (9,494) people) than the MISER data and, therefore, provides the community with a high and low estimate. The town's actual population in 2010 will probably be somewhere in between the two projections. Sources: SRPEDD & Mass. Institute for Social and Economic Research Table 2: Comparison of Population Projections Year MISER SRPEDD 2000 95,552 86,083 2010 97,988 88,494 %Change 2.5% 2.8% Population Density Fall River ranks first in population density (persons per square mile) of the six abutting communities. Using the MISER population projections for 2010, Fall River will have a density of approximately 3,113 people per square mile. It is important to note that these figures are skewed by the fact that the eastern half of Fall River is almost entirely undeveloped. Population density in the urban western half of the City is likely to be 70-80% greater thatn the 2,945 figure. Source:1990 U.S.Census Table 3: Comparison of Regional Population Density Between 1980 and 1990 (Persons Per Square Mile) Community Square Miles 1980 1990 Fall River 31.48 2,941 2,945 Westport 51.55 267 269 Dartmouth 62.67 382 435 Freetown 36.58 193 233 Somerset 8.09 2,325 2,182 Swansea 23.34 662 660 Dighton 22.34 240 252 This density has important implications for open space and recreation planning, especially since an active construction market is causing existing privately-owned open space in the developed part of the city to gradually disappear. This highlights the need to protect available open space within or on the edge of residential neighborhoods where a need is apparent and to identify small lots that can be land-banked for use as pocket parks in the future. The density should also be considered when looking at the larger area of Fall River and the extent to which suburban sprawl will convert what is now open into suburban residential development. ii.) Age, Family Structure & Education Age Distribution Fall River and the surrounding communities show very similar age distributions. For all communities involved (see Table 4), the largest segment of the population is the 25-44 year old age group. In Fall River, almost half of the population is between 25 and 64 years of age (46.4%). Source:1990 U.S.Census Table 4: Comparison of Regional Age Distribution by Percent Community Under 17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65 & over Fall River 24.3 11.2 28.9 17.5 18.1 Westport 22.6 10.5 30.2 23.0 13.7 Dartmouth 21.9 15.0 27.1 20.3 15.7 Freetown 28.0 10.6 34.9 18.7 7.8 Somerset 20.5 9.4 27.6 24.7 17.8 Swansea 23.5 10.3 31.2 21.4 13.6 Dighton 25.4 9.2 31.5 20.4 13.5 An interesting facet of this data is that the percent of persons under 17 years of age is higher in Fall River than in most of the surrounding suburban ciommunities. Fall River is not, as commonly thought, a city of older people but has a population mix that has a need for a full range of open space and recreational amenities. Family Structure Over 73% of Fall River's family households are married couple households. Fall River has fewer married households than both Bristol County (79%) and the State of Massachusetts (77.2%). Conversely, there are significantly more single female heads of households (22.3%) as compared to both Bristol County (17.1%) and the State (17.9%). In addition, there is a tendency toward smaller households. Over 60% of all households are 1 or 2 person households. Source:1990 U.S.Census Table 5: Fall River Family Households By Presence of Own Children and by Family Type by Percent Type Fall River Bristol Co. State Total Number 24,758 135,656 1,514,746 Married Couple with Child 34.8 37.9 35.7 Married Couple without Child 38.3 40.7 41.5 Male Household (no wife) with child 2.0 1.8 1.8 Male Household (no wife) without child 2.6 2.5 3.1 Female Household (no husband) with child 14.5 10.5 10.3 Female Household (no husband) without child 7.8 6.6 7.6 Total Percentage 100% 100% 100% Source: 1990 Census Table 6: Households by Number of Persons by Percent Number Fall River Bristol Co. State 1 Person 30.1 23.8 28.6 2 Persons 30.2 30.5 23.8 3 Persons 17.9 18.9 19.4 4 Persons 13.6 16.6 16.9 5 Persons 5.5 7.0 7.5 6 or more 2.7 3.2 3.8 Total Households 37,303 187,668 2,031,626 Education Fall River has 30 elementary schools, 11 private parochial elementary schools, 4 middle schools, 1 high school, 1 vocational-technical school and 1 private, parochial high school. Fall River is also home to Bristol Community College. As of September 1996, 11,875 students were enrolled in Fall River's public school system. There has been a slight trend towards increased levels of formal education in Fall RIver. As of 1980, 6.7% of the population had received a four-year college degree or more. By 1990, the rate had increased to 8.45%. This figure is significantly lower than both the Bristol County average of 15.9% and the State figure of 27.2%. iii.) Income and Poverty Levels Fall River's residents generally earn lower incomes in comparison to Bristol County and the State. This figure is consistant with the relatively large percentage of families below the poverty level (See Table 7). Income Source: 1990 U.S. Census Table 7: Per Capita, Household and Family Incomes as Compared to Poverty Levels   Per Capita Income Household Income (median) Family Income (median) Above Poverty Level Below Poverty Level Fall River $10,966 $22,452 $28,972 85.7% 14.3% Bristol Co. $13,853 $31,520 $38,003 90.9% 9.1% State $17,224 $36,952 $44,367 91.1% 8.9% The low indicators for income, low education levels and high ratios of single parent households suggests that it is important to provide open space and recreational opportunities in close poximity to Fall River's urban population. In general, the population does not have the financial resources to invest in expensive vacation travel to distant places. What is needed is the enhancement of no-cost recreational opportunities that are available in the city: walking along the ocean; enjoyment of scenic vistas of Mount Hope Bay, the Taunton River or the city's ponds; bicycling, jogging or rollerblading along a bikepath; fishing in one of the city's ponds or in the Bay; boating at Heritage State Park; playing soccer, baseball, softball or football on a well-maintained field; exploring a wooded trail; or simply walking along a tree-shaded neighborhood street. iv.) Employment and Unemployment Employment In comparision to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, private sector employment in Fall River is more heavily concentrated in the manufacturing sector. Statewide, only 21% of total private employment is classified as manufacturing. Fall River, however, still has 32.5% of its jobs classified within the manufacturing sector. This concentration is nearly 50% greater than the statewide share of manufacturing jobs. Service sector occupations represent only 27.3% or 1 in 4 jobs locally. There is a higher concentration of retail sector employment in Fall River than is the case statewide. However, the differential is relatively small. In Fall River 24% of private employment is classified within the sales and administrative support sector, while statewide 29% of jobs are within the sales and administrative support sector. Figures from the Massachusetts Division of Employment and Training show the wholesale industry in Fall RIver has been steadily declining since 1985. The average payroll per employee in the Fall River area is also substantially below the Commonwealth average earnings. In the Fall River area, for example, the average payroll per employee in 1989 was $18,129.00 in comparison to $25,014.00 statewide. Furthermore, within the manufacturing sector the average payroll in the Fall River area was $19,301.00 in comparison to $30,926.00 statewide. Service sector jobs in the Fall River area averaged $18,962.00 per employee, while statewide service jobs averaged $24,010.00 per employee. Finally, analysis of data on commuting patterns indicates that for certain occupations, namely, management and administrative jobs, as well as certain high skilled manufacturing occupations, a disproportionately high number of Fall River workers commuted on a daily basis to other labor markets in the Boston area and in Rhode Island. Source: 1990 U.S. Census Table 8: Percentage of Employed Persons, 16 and Over, by Occupation   Fall River Bristol Co. State Managerial/Prof./Admin. 18.5 26.8 36.3 Sales/Admin. Support 24.0 26.8 28.6 Service 15.5 13.3 12.8 Farming/Fishing 1.0 1.3 0.9 Precision Prod./Craft/Repair 13.0 12.9 10.0 Operation/Fabricator/Labor 25.0 15.5 8.5 Transportation 3.0 3.4 2.9 Total Percentage 100% 100% 100% Total Persons 40,226 241,998 3,027,950 Source: Employment and Wages in Mass. Cities and Towns Mass. Division of Employment and Training Table 9: Employment within Fall River by Major Industry Divisions   1985 1990 % Change 1995 % Change Total Employment 40,881 38,056 -7.4 38,333 +0.7 Government 3,366 3,875 +15.1 3,974 +2.6 Agr./For./Fisheries 75 75 0 55 -36.4 Mining 0 0 0 0 0 Contract Construction 1,032 1,127 +9.2 892 -26.3 Manufacturing 17,463 13,307 -31.2 12,472 -6.7 Trans./Comm./Utilities 1,087 1,117 +2.8 1,171 +4.8 Wholesale/Retail Trade 7,721 7,464 -3.4 7,135 -4.6 Fin./Ins./Real Estate 2,249 2,728 +21.3 2,157 -26.5 Services 7,888 8,363 +6.0 10,477 +25.3 Unemployment Estimates by the Massachusetts Division of Employment and Training show a higher unemployment rate for Fall River than for both Bristol County and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The unemployment rates have soared from a low of 6.6% in 1988 to the highest mark of 17.1% in 1991. Since 1991, the unemployment rate has been steadily decreasing to the most recent figure of 9.6% as of April 1997. Source: Mass. Division of Employment and Training Table 10: Mass. Department of Employment and Training, Unemployment Rates, by Percent (1986-1995) Place 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Fall River 7.2 6.8 6.6 7.7 11.8 Bristol Co. 6.5 4.8 4.6 5.7 --- State 3.8 3.2 3.3 4.0 6.0 Place 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Fall River 17.1 14.9 13.9 10.9 10.8 Bristol Co. 12.6 11.5 9.7 8.6 8.1 State 9.0 8.5 6.9 6.0 5.4 v.) Housing Fall River’s housing stock is composed primarily of two to four family homes, with this segment making up 49.1% of Fall River’s housing. Fall River has significantly more multiple housing units than the County and the State. Source: 1990 U.S. Census Table 11: Year Round Housing Units by Type of Structure by Percent in 1990 Type of Structure Fall River Bristol Co. State Single Family 18.7 51.0 53.6 2 - 4 Family 49.1 29.8 24.2 5 or more 31.4 16.7 20.1 Mobil Home/Trailer 0.8 2.5 2.1 Total Units 40,375 201,235 2,472,711 Building Permits Data shows that the annual number of permits issued for new construction for housing and non-residential development in Fall River steadily increased from 1982 to 1989. In 1990, however, that trend was broken with a reduction in new construction permits to early 1980’s levels. Since that time, permits for new single and multi family construction have shown a slow upward trend. Between 1980 and 1996, 6,975 residential and 4,286 non-residential building permits were issued. The majority of residential permits issued were for additions and/or alterations rather than for new construction. The greatest number of residential permits issued for a given year occurred in 1987 (628 permits). Since that time, the number of permits issued per year decreased steadily to a 1995 level of 412 permits. 1996, however, saw an increase in buildiing permits to 521. Source: Fall River Comprehensive Master Plan, 1993, Fall River Building Department, 1997 Table 12: Number of Residential Building Permits by Type Issued Between 1980-1996 Year Single Family Multi Family Additions/ Alterations Sub Totals 1980 36 0 143 179 1981 37 0 128 165 1982 45 3 130 178 1983 51 3 118 172 1984 77 4 128 209 1985 87 27 157 271 1986 139 74 342 555 1987 152 43 433 628 1988 154 17 384 555 1989 111 29 455 595 1990 86 24 481 591 1991 77 7 390 474 1992 110 3 409 522 1993 136 13 360 509 1994 130 12 297 439 1995 105 6 310 412 1996 126 10 385 521 Totals 1,659 275 5,050 6,975 Very few non-residential permits have been issued for commercial and industrial construction. The majority of permits were for additions and/or alterations or for “other” projects. The largest number of non-residential building permits issued in a given year occurred in 1988 (911 permits). Source: Fall River Comprehensive Plan,1993 Fall River Building Department, 1997 Table 13: Number of Non-Residential Building Permits by Type Issued Between 1980-1996 Year Commercial Industrial Other Additions/ Alterations Sub Totals Permit Totals (Tables 12 & 13) 1980 5 0 86 76 167 346 1981 8 0 102 64 174 339 1982 10 2 42 96 150 328 1983 8 2 79 88 177 349 1984 31 1 72 110 214 423 1985 13 2 88 123 226 497 1986 25 4 159 105 293 848 1987 16 4 104 124 248 876 1988 11 2 164 179 356 911 1989 8 5 168 109 290 885 1990 5 4 129 69 207 798 1991 1 0 157 70 228 702 1992 4 0 148 88 240 762 1993 10 2 150 108 270 779 1994 11 1 153 128 293 732 1995 33 0 154 121 308 720 1996 15 0 266 164 445 966 Grand Totals 214 29 2,221 1,822 4,286 11,261 continued...